Brent below $97 as oil drops $17 in four days and Iran mocks deal talk

$17 gone, and Tehran is laughing

Brent crude slid below $97 on Thursday, dropping $3.85 to $97.42. WTI fell $3.90 to $91.18. That makes four straight days of selling since Monday's $114.44 peak, a $17 collapse that has wiped roughly 15% off the international benchmark.

The market keeps betting on a deal. Iran keeps saying there is no deal to bet on.

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf took to X on Thursday to mock the Axios report that sparked Wednesday's crash. He called it "Operation Fauxios" and wrote: "Operation Trust Me Bro failed. Now back to routine with Operation Fauxios." Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for Iran's parliamentary foreign policy commission, dismissed the reported terms as "a list of American wishes rather than reality."

Gold climbed $52.70 to $4,747.00. The safe-haven trade is holding.

Iran's response is due Thursday

The 48-hour deadline set by Washington expires today. Iran's foreign ministry confirmed it is still reviewing the US proposal and will deliver its answer through Pakistani mediators.

The proposal on the table, according to Axios, is a 14-point memorandum that would declare the war over and open a 30-day window for detailed negotiations. Tehran would freeze nuclear enrichment. Washington would lift sanctions and release frozen Iranian funds. Both sides would open the Strait of Hormuz.

But the gap on enrichment is wide. The US reportedly wants a 20-year moratorium. Iran has proposed five. Iran's military-linked Defa Press said removing uranium from the country had been "completely and irreversibly ruled out."

Trump said talks are going well but warned on Truth Social: "If they don't agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before."

The Navy shot at an Iranian tanker

While diplomacy inches forward, the blockade is tightening. On Tuesday, according to US Central Command, an F/A-18 Super Hornet from the USS Abraham Lincoln fired 20mm cannon rounds into the rudder of the M/T Hasna, an Iranian-flagged tanker that tried to breach the naval cordon in the Gulf of Oman. The ship was disabled but not sunk.

According to The War Zone, it was the first time during the conflict that a US aircraft was used to directly disable a vessel. Previous blockade actions had been carried out by surface warships. The Navy said the tanker ignored repeated warnings.

Saudi Arabia quietly killed Project Freedom

Trump said he paused Project Freedom to make room for diplomacy. That was part of the story. The other part, reported by NBC News: Saudi Arabia told Washington it would no longer permit US military flights from Prince Sultan Airbase or through Saudi airspace to support the Hormuz mission.

Without that air cover, the operation was finished. It got two ships through and destroyed six Iranian boats before it ended, lasting less than 48 hours.

OPEC output has collapsed to a 36-year low

A Bloomberg survey published Wednesday showed OPEC production fell to 20.55 million barrels per day in April, the lowest level since 1990. The Hormuz closure has choked exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait. The cartel agreed to add 188,000 bpd for June, but the gesture is symbolic when most producers cannot get oil out of the Gulf.

Israel just made the deal harder

Israel struck Beirut's southern suburbs on Wednesday for the first time since the April 17 Lebanon ceasefire, targeting a commander in Hezbollah's Radwan Force. Iran has historically tied Hezbollah's security to any broader agreement with Washington. The strike landed at the worst possible moment for the diplomatic track.

The week in numbers

What to watch

Tehran's answer. If Iran accepts the framework, even with conditions, crude drops further and Hormuz reopening becomes a question of weeks. If Iran walks away, Trump has already told the market what comes next. Either way, the answer arrives today.