Oil's slide picked up speed on Wednesday. Brent dropped below $100 a barrel, a level it last traded under in early October, and was down nearly 9% at one point. WTI lost more than 8% at its low.
The move followed a post on X from Vice President JD Vance, who said the conflict with Iran was the main reason Republicans lost both chambers of Congress on Tuesday. His comments added to bets that Washington will push for a deal with Tehran rather than a new round of strikes.
Vance points to Iran
Vance was blunt. "But everyone knows why we lost," he wrote, adding: "And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there."
Turnout was not the main issue, he argued. "The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026," he wrote. Ending the Iran conflict and the cost of living were among the reasons he listed for that switch.
Rachel Campos-Duffy, a Fox News host, had urged a "diplomatic resolution" with Iran, and Vance called her advice "sound." He led the US negotiating team in the spring, when the two sides reached a deal that later fell apart.
Trump went less far on Tuesday night. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, he said "Iran was a piece of it." Democrats are on course for at least 54 Senate seats, according to CBS News estimates.
Nearly 7% in 80 minutes
Prices were already lower before the post. Earlier on Wednesday, Brent and WTI were down 2% to 3% after Trump said there were no immediate plans for new strikes. Then the selling sped up. Between 10:40 a.m. and noon ET, Brent shed close to 7%.
WTI has now given up well over 10% since Friday, including Monday's sharp drop.
Fuel futures followed. Heating oil futures, the US diesel benchmark, fell about 7%, and gasoline futures lost about 5%. NBC News put the average US gasoline price at $4.12 a gallon on Wednesday morning. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan said it could slip under $4 in the coming days.
"The next six weeks typically deliver one of the most hostile environments for higher gasoline and diesel prices," Gulf Oil's chief energy adviser Tom Kloza wrote on social media.
US inventories keep shrinking
The sell-off came even as US data pointed to a tight market at home. Crude stocks shrank by 865,000 barrels in the latest week, Energy Information Administration data showed. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a rise. Distillate stocks, which include diesel, dropped 3.6 million barrels, and refineries ran at 94.5% of capacity.
The global picture looks looser. JPMorgan puts the world oil surplus at 1.4 million barrels per day for October, compared with 1.1 million the month before. Middle East exports have climbed back to about 20.7 million barrels per day, the bank says, after sinking to 9.8 million in March.
No deal yet
Washington and Tehran still have no agreement. Iran says the latest US answer to its Hormuz conditions falls short, and Trump told Fox News that a "heavy hit" on Iran is still possible.
Michelle Brouhard of Kpler pointed out that the new Congress does not take office until January 3. That leaves the White House almost two months before the new lawmakers arrive.