Storage tanks ran low before the shooting started
Europe entered 2026 with its gas reserves already strained. Storage facilities held just 46 billion cubic metres at the end of February, down from 60 bcm a year earlier and barely half the 77 bcm on hand in 2024, according to data tracked by Bruegel, the Brussels-based think tank.
Then Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz.
The timing could hardly be worse. With oil now trading above $105 a barrel and Qatar's Ras Laffan complex offline after drone strikes, Europe's most critical backup fuel supply has been severed at a moment when the continent has almost nothing in reserve.
Qatar's shutdown leaves a gap no one can fill quickly
Qatar and the UAE together account for roughly 20% of global LNG trade. That supply is now frozen. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on its contracts after Iranian drones struck Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG export facility, on March 2.
With almost no Russian pipeline gas left and few alternatives beyond seaborne LNG, Europe is now fighting for the same spot cargoes as Asia. "Asian buyers looking to backfill their lost supply will be competing with European buyers for spare LNG cargoes, many of which will originate from the US, with an upward price impact in Europe," said Tom Marzec-Manser, director for European gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie.
Norway keeps pumping. US Gulf Coast terminals are running flat out. But those volumes were already spoken for.
Prices have already spiked, and could double
Dutch TTF futures, Europe's benchmark gas contract, hit €56 per megawatt-hour in the days after the strikes before pulling back to around €48. UK wholesale gas prices jumped more than 40%. Both remain far above pre-crisis levels.
Analysts at Bruegel warned the damage could get much worse: prices could "more than double if Hormuz Strait shipping is halted for a month." Two weeks in, there is no sign of the blockade lifting.
Gaurav Sharma, an independent energy analyst based in London, put it bluntly: "The EU would be scrambling for cargoes to temporarily replace Qatari LNG, vying for more gas from Norway, the US and North Africa and paying higher for it."
Why Europe is more exposed than in 2022
On paper, Europe survived one gas crisis already. Russia's invasion of Ukraine forced the continent to replace roughly 150 bcm of annual Russian pipeline gas, largely with LNG. Brussels mandated minimum storage levels. Governments spent billions on floating regasification terminals.
But those measures assumed the new supply routes would stay open. Three things have changed:
- Storage is depleted. The 46 bcm in tanks at the end of February sits 40% below where Europe was two years ago. A cold snap or prolonged supply disruption would eat through those reserves fast.
- Russian gas is gone for good. The last transit route through Ukraine expired at the end of 2024. There is no fallback pipeline to reopen.
- LNG competition has intensified. China, Japan and South Korea are all chasing the same spot cargoes. During the 2022 crisis, Qatar kept shipping. This time, Qatar's largest plant is shut down.
What Brussels is doing about it
The European Commission said it plans to convene an energy task force with member states and the International Energy Agency to monitor supply and coordinate a response. So far, no emergency releases from strategic reserves have been announced.
Behind the scenes, officials are weighing tougher measures. Joint gas purchasing, the mechanism Brussels set up after the Russian supply shock, could be activated again to prevent EU countries from bidding against each other on the spot market.
Industrial demand cuts are another lever. During the 2022 crisis, the EU agreed to a voluntary 15% reduction in gas consumption. Some member states may push for a similar target if prices keep climbing.
The numbers that matter this week
Brent crude closed at $105.46 a barrel on Friday, up 12.77%. Natural gas in the US traded at $3.37 per million British thermal units. But Europe's gas bill is measured in euros per megawatt-hour, and at €48 on the TTF, it is running roughly 50% above where it sat before the first missiles flew on February 28.
Traders will be watching two things: any signal that Hormuz shipping might resume, and the next round of European storage injection data due later this month. If the strait stays closed and storage keeps draining, Europe's second energy crisis in four years will go from looming to real.