A mine blast and the fire that followed sent a container ship to the bottom south of Hormuz early Wednesday, according to Iran's Revolutionary Guards. Their navy said the vessel had more than 2,500 boxes on board. Iranian state media carried the statement.
The statement left out the basics. It did not name the ship, its owner or its flag, and it said nothing about the crew. So far no shipping company or flag state has commented publicly. The UK Maritime Trade Operations center (UKMTO), which logs attacks on merchant ships in the region, has not reported a sinking either.
The Guards blamed the ship for taking what they called an "unauthorized and dangerous route" across the waterway. They told fishermen and local boats to look out for containers floating in the area.
Oil barely moves
Brent crude traded at $105.84 a barrel at 9:49 GMT, up 15 cents from Tuesday's close of $105.69. WTI rose 58 cents to $94.72. Brent had been up nearly $1 early in Asian trading before giving back most of that gain.
Traders have had plenty of ship attacks to digest lately. Brent has climbed over 70% since January, and Morgan Stanley now puts its Brent forecast for October through December at $105.
Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova, told Reuters that Iran knows how much damage high oil prices can do to the global economy and "may not shy away from using this leverage."
Why a mine is different
Drones and missiles have to be aimed. A mine just sits in the water and hits whatever passes over it. That puts every ship in a mined lane at risk, and clearing one is slow, careful work.
For months, Iranian notices to shipping have said mines lie in the central traffic lanes and in Omani waters on the southern side. US officials have previously backed that up, The Maritime Executive reported in July. Tehran wants ships to use a corridor through Iranian waters, and only with its navy's permission. In late July, Iranian media said a tanker sailing outside that corridor had also hit a mine.
The southern route is where most of the trouble has been. Of 48 projectile strikes UKMTO counted between July 6 and early October, 31 hit ships on the Omani side, Gulf News reported.
A rough week in the strait
Wednesday's claim follows several days of attacks:
- Sunday, Oct. 11: Six ships were reported hit, the heaviest one-day toll since the conflict began, according to The Maritime Executive.
- Tuesday, Oct. 13: UKMTO logged two separate hits from unidentified projectiles, one on a tanker and one on a container ship, both north of the Musandam Peninsula. It gave no names or damage reports, and nobody knows yet whether that container ship is the one Iran now says sank.
- Also Tuesday: Iran's regular navy said a tanker it called "non-compliant" switched off its tracking signal, tried to slip through a banned zone and ended up on fire in the eastern part of the strait.
In interviews with Reuters on Tuesday, Iranian officials said a switch in tactics roughly 10 days ago has let them hit more ships. Their stated goal is to hold oil prices up and squeeze US voters before the Nov. 3 midterms. The White House, for its part, has reportedly asked for options to strike Iran before the same vote.
Gulf supply is under pressure from the Houthis too. The Saudi energy ministry said Wednesday that a Houthi strike hit an Aramco office building in Dhahran and started a limited fire. Riyadh has promised to keep oil flowing despite a week of missile and drone attacks.
What to watch
- A name for the ship. Confirmation from the owner, the flag state or UKMTO would show whether Iran's account holds up.
- Insurance and freight costs. Some supertanker operators have already pulled back from the Gulf, the Cyprus Mail reported. A confirmed mine sinking could push cover costs higher still.
- Saudi workarounds. Aramco could repurpose gas pipelines to carry another 1.2 million barrels a day of exports within seven or eight weeks, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Saudi energy minister, said on Monday. The kingdom also plans to expand pipelines that bypass the strait.