Friday's reopening lasted a day
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Saturday evening that the Strait of Hormuz is closed again and that any vessel approaching the waterway will be treated as hostile and fired upon.
The statement, issued by the IRGC Navy, orders every ship in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman to stay at anchor. "Approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered cooperation with the enemy, and the offending vessel will be targeted," it reads.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported two separate incidents in the strait within hours: small-boat fire directed at a tanker, and an unidentified projectile that struck a container ship and damaged cargo on deck. India's foreign ministry said it had summoned the Iranian ambassador after two India-flagged merchant ships were hit.
The reversal came less than 24 hours after more than a dozen commercial vessels had cleared the strait in the first real test of Trump's naval blockade.
Why Iran pulled back
Tehran's stated reason is simple. The US has not lifted its blockade of Iranian ports, and Revolutionary Guard commanders say Hormuz will remain closed until that changes. Trump himself confirmed Saturday that restrictions on traffic into and out of Iranian terminals stay in force, even though the strait had briefly opened.
The sequence matters. Iran is signalling that its one act of good faith, the brief window of permitted transits, was conditional on parallel US action that never came.
Proposals on the table
While the IRGC was issuing threats, Iran's Supreme National Security Council put out a separate statement saying Tehran is reviewing "new proposals" from the United States. The documents were handed over in Tehran on April 17 by Pakistan's Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, who is still shuttling between the two sides.
The SNSC drew two red lines. Iran will not give up its missile programme. And a second round of talks will only happen if Washington accepts that the terms have to reflect what Tehran calls "battlefield realities" on the ground.
The first round in Islamabad on April 12 and 13 collapsed when US negotiators, according to Iran, walked back parts of the 10-point framework they had accepted in earlier drafts.
Trump's response
Asked about Iran on Saturday, Trump said: "We'll be talking about Iran later. We have very good conversations going on." He said Tehran had "got a little cute" by moving to reclose the strait, and insisted that "they can't blackmail us."
Markets brace for the reopen
Oil closed sharply lower on Friday before any of this surfaced. WTI settled at $82.59, Brent ended at $90.38. By the Friday close the tape had already priced in rising odds of a deal, not a re-escalation.
Sunday's open could reprice everything. Firing on Indian-flagged ships raises the risk of a third country getting drawn in. The ceasefire itself expires on April 22, the Wednesday after next, and there is no follow-up meeting scheduled.
What to watch
Three things over the next 72 hours:
- Whether Iran follows through on its warning by firing on any further vessel that approaches Hormuz.
- Whether Washington lifts or tightens the port blockade in response.
- Whether Tehran's SNSC signals movement on the US proposals before the ceasefire window runs out.
The diplomatic track is alive. The military track is firing. Markets open Sunday evening with both running at the same time.