Oil prices fell about 4% on Monday. Iranian negotiators spent the weekend in Doha with Qatari mediators, and the market took that as a sign that diplomacy still has time to work before Tuesday's US midterm elections. Shortly after 09:30 UTC, Brent, the global benchmark, was down 4.1%. WTI, the US benchmark, had lost 4.0% and slipped back below $100 a barrel.
Fuel prices dropped too. US gasoline futures were down more than 5%, and diesel futures fell about 3%.
The slide follows a strong run. Brent ended October at its highest level since April. Much of that rise came from fear of new US strikes on Iran once the vote is over. Tim Waterer of KCM Trade told Reuters that "lingering hopes of some form of diplomatic progress, combined with the absence of any meaningful military escalation over the weekend, have taken some of the immediate heat out of prices for now."
Three days of talks in Doha
Qatari mediators met Iranian officials in Tehran on Friday. The meetings moved to Doha on Saturday, and the Iranian team was still there on Sunday, according to an official who spoke to Reuters. The official said Qatar was in regular contact with Washington about the talks.
Tehran's plan for reopening Hormuz now runs over two days instead of seven, according to Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, who gave the Qatari side credit for the change. Under that schedule, the US would take agreed steps first and ships could pass through the strait a day later. Iran has tied the plan to a long list of demands. Among them are recognition of shipping lanes that Iran and Oman have drawn up, fewer US troops and ships in the region, an end to recent US sanctions, and a return of the oil waivers Washington granted in June.
On Sunday, Araghchi described the talks as making progress, though nothing had been agreed. He also stressed that Iran is not holding direct talks with the US.
There has been no public reply from Washington. Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, told reporters on Saturday that no decision on new strikes had been taken and that President Donald Trump's first choice was a negotiated settlement. In a phone call with Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said the talks should get a longer run before any decision on more strikes, Axios reported. Before a campaign event in Iowa on Sunday, Trump said of Iran: "Either they'll make a deal, or we'll just end it," according to CBS News.
Why some sites show a bigger drop for Brent
Friday was the final trading day for December Brent. It settled about 3.7% above January, which has now taken over as the front month. A site that quoted December last week and January today will show Brent down about 7.5% since Friday. Close to half of that gap comes from the switch between contracts, not from selling.
Our Brent price has tracked January since late Wednesday, as we explained in Friday's article on the December expiry. The 4.1% drop on our site compares January with January.
OPEC+ keeps December targets unchanged
Sunday's online OPEC+ meeting, with seven core members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia taking part, left December output targets where they were. It is the third month in a row without a change, and the market had expected it. Targets count for less than usual right now. With their exports still disrupted, most Gulf producers cannot reach the levels they are allowed to pump.
"Today's decision was the easy one," Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon told Reuters. The harder call comes on November 29, when all OPEC+ members meet and are expected to set production levels for 2027.
Attacks at sea continue
The weekend was calmer than many traders had feared, but ships in the region were still being hit. According to UKMTO, the British military's maritime security agency, a projectile hit a ship inside the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. Farther north, two unidentified projectiles struck a tanker about 133 km (72 nautical miles) off Ras al-Khafji, a Saudi town near the border with Kuwait. Every crew member was accounted for.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said mines had hit two more tankers on Sunday after they used routes Tehran has not approved. No one outside Iran has confirmed the claim.
Saudi Arabia has kept oil moving despite last week's Houthi claims against its oil sites. Saudi crude shipments were higher in October than in September, according to two of the three tanker-tracking services Reuters consulted.
What to watch
- Tuesday's midterm elections. Trump has ruled out new strikes until voting is over. US planners are getting military options ready for after the election, according to reports in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.
- A US reply to Iran's two-day plan. Washington has not said whether it will take up the proposal or any of its conditions.
- OPEC+ on November 29. The group is checking how much each member can actually produce. That work should wrap up by mid-November and will feed into the 2027 targets.