Production pause extended through March
OPEC+ confirmed on Saturday that it will keep oil production unchanged through the first quarter of 2026, maintaining the pause on planned output increases despite mounting internal disagreements and global geopolitical upheaval.
The virtual meeting, which lasted under 10 minutes, saw the eight key producing nations reaffirm their November decision to suspend production increases through March. The group cited seasonal factors and the need to monitor evolving market conditions.
Brent crude traded at $60.76 per barrel while WTI stood at $57.26 following the announcement, both largely unchanged as markets had widely expected the decision.
Internal tensions surface
The brief meeting masked significant divisions within the alliance. Political friction between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has intensified following recent Yemen-related conflicts, straining what has historically been a close partnership.
The eight participating countries, which include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, supply approximately half of the world's oil. Despite their differences, members agreed to maintain collective discipline.
Venezuela adds uncertainty
The meeting came just days after the US captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, adding another layer of complexity to global oil markets. However, analysts remain skeptical that Venezuelan production will see meaningful increases anytime soon, given years of underinvestment and infrastructure decline.
Venezuela currently produces around 1.1 million barrels per day, a fraction of its historical output.
Oversupply concerns persist
The decision to hold production steady comes against a backdrop of significant oversupply concerns. Oil prices fell 18% during 2025, marking the worst annual performance in years.
The International Energy Agency forecasts that global supply will exceed demand by more than 4 million barrels per day in 2026, while OPEC maintains a more optimistic outlook expecting balanced markets.
The group noted that 1.65 million barrels per day of paused production may be returned gradually, subject to market conditions.
What comes next
OPEC+ scheduled its next meeting for February 2026, when members will reassess market conditions. The next full ministerial conference is set for June 2026, where longer-term production policy will be determined.
For now, the alliance appears committed to defending prices through supply discipline, even as internal disagreements and external shocks test the group's unity.