OPEC+ ministers gather Sunday for what delegates are calling the most consequential meeting since the alliance was formed. WTI crude sits at $111.54 per barrel. Brent trades at $109.03. The OPEC basket is at $110.63.
The question facing Saudi Arabia, Russia, and six other producers is deceptively simple: add more oil to a market that physically cannot move the barrels it already has.
What happened last time
On March 1, the eight OPEC+ adjusters agreed to boost output by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April. Saudi Arabia and Russia each took the largest shares of the increase, with the rest split among Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.
Brent was trading in the mid-$70s before the war and had just crossed $80 by the time the decision was announced. Five weeks later, it has climbed past $109 — a gain of more than 40 percent from pre-war levels.
The Hormuz problem
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by more than 80 percent since strikes on Iran began on February 28. Iraq and Kuwait have shut in production because tankers simply cannot leave the Persian Gulf. That makes Sunday’s production targets partly academic.
Rystad Energy has warned that logistics and transit risk now matter more than production targets. One OPEC+ delegate told Reuters, “We need to react, at least on paper.” Another said the market requires every barrel that can be produced.
Scenario 1: reverse the increase
OPEC+ could cancel the 206,000 b/d April hike and hold output flat. The logic is straightforward. With Gulf exports blocked, extra barrels pile up in storage rather than reaching buyers. Freezing production would signal that the group takes demand destruction seriously.
Analysts at The Middle East Insider give this a 40 percent chance. If it happens, expect Brent to push toward $115 to $120.
Scenario 2: stick with the plan
The most likely outcome, at roughly 45 percent odds, is that OPEC+ keeps the 206,000 b/d increase on paper. The message: we are confident in demand and ready to supply when the strait reopens.
Brent would probably stay in the $100 to $110 range. It is a hold-steady move that avoids headlines while changing little on the ground.
Scenario 3: surprise ramp-up
The wildcard. OPEC+ could announce 400,000 barrels per day or more, a signal that market stability matters more than squeezing every dollar from $110 oil. Saudi Arabia has roughly 3 million b/d of spare capacity, the largest supply buffer on the planet.
This would likely knock Brent to $90 to $95. Analysts put the odds at just 15 percent, but it cannot be ruled out. Russian President Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke by phone Thursday, according to Reuters, though neither side disclosed details.
What to watch
Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven sits around $80 per barrel. At current prices, Riyadh is banking a surplus of roughly $30 on every barrel it sells. That cushion gives the kingdom room to move in any direction without financial pain.
The real variable is not production targets but whether tankers can actually leave the Gulf. Wood Mackenzie has warned that prices could breach $150 if the Hormuz crisis drags into mid-May. JPMorgan, on the other hand, forecasts Brent dropping below $80 by the third quarter if tensions ease.
Sunday’s decision will set the tone. But the Strait of Hormuz holds the final say.