Qatar has slammed the brakes on its return to full gas exports. After a missile hit one of its tankers in the Strait of Hormuz last week, the Gulf state stopped trying to rush production back to normal at Ras Laffan, the sprawling complex that ships roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne liquefied natural gas.
The decision hands the market another supply scare at the worst possible moment, with crude already surging nearly 9% after Iran declared the strait closed.
Why Qatar blinked
The trigger was the July 7 attack that set the LNG carrier Al Rekayat on fire and forced its crew to evacuate. A Saudi supertanker, the Wedyan, was struck in the same stretch of water. For QatarEnergy, watching one of its own gas carriers burn was enough to stop the restart cold.
Chief executive Saad al-Kaabi ordered the Ras Laffan complex kept at a minimum and trimmed the number of tankers due to load in the coming days, according to people familiar with the plans. Safety, not price, drove the call.
A plant that only just came back
Qatar shut Ras Laffan when the war began in late February. Drone and missile strikes in March wiped out about 17% of its capacity, and the country only started bringing volumes back last month, aiming to reach half its normal rate within weeks. That recovery is now on hold.
The stakes are large. Qatar shipped about 77 million tonnes of LNG in 2025, and every cargo sails through Hormuz. There is no pipeline workaround and no second export coast. When the strait closes, Qatari gas simply stops.
Where the gas is going
The pain is landing outside the United States. European gas rose about 4% to near €50 per megawatt-hour, its highest in a month, as buyers scrambled to lock in winter supply. In Asia, spot cargoes are changing hands a few dollars above European prices, pulling ships east and away from Europe's storage sites.
US households are insulated, at least for now. Henry Hub gas eased about 2% to $2.88 per million British thermal units, since American supply never touches the Gulf.
What comes next
Everything hinges on the water. Qatar has signaled it will not run tankers through a shooting gallery, so the restart waits on a lasting calm in Hormuz, not just a paper ceasefire. Its longer-term plan to lift capacity toward 142 million tonnes by 2030 still stands, but that is a problem for another year.
For now, the world's top gas supplier is choosing to keep its ships in port, and Europe is paying for it.