The oil rally is into its third day and gaining speed. WTI climbed 4.4% to $89.67 a barrel on Wednesday after touching $90.97, while Brent added 4.1% to $94.32 and traded as high as $95.45. Tuesday's jump was already the biggest one-day gain in five weeks, according to Bloomberg. Wednesday is building on it.
Seven targets along the coast
The trigger came from Washington. President Donald Trump announced "large and powerful" strikes against targets inside Iran, writing on Truth Social that they answered Tehran's failed attempt to mine the Strait of Hormuz and its missile fire at a US base in Jordan. Iranian media reported hits along the country's southern coast, including Bandar Abbas, Jask, Chabahar and the island of Qeshm.
The scale sets this round apart. Sunday's strike on Larak Island took out two rocket launchers. This one reached seven coastal locations in a single night.
Iran's Armed Forces Central Headquarters vowed to answer with "crushing and devastating blows." Trump countered that any response would be met "at a much harder and higher level," adding that the biggest attack "is waiting in the wings."
Tankers are getting hit too
Two supertankers were struck by projectiles late Monday while leaving the Gulf near Khasab, Oman, according to Athens-based maritime security firm Marisks. The Sidr, a very large crude carrier run by Saudi Arabia's Bahri, and the Sinokor-operated Senegal Prosperity were both sailing with their transponders switched off when they were hit.
Nobody has claimed those attacks. But they landed hours before the US strikes, and CENTCOM pointed to them in explaining the operation. Tanker traffic through the strait had clawed back to roughly half its pre-conflict volume during August's quiet stretch. That recovery now looks fragile.
Wall Street feels it
The rally is spilling well beyond energy. Rising crude has pushed global bond yields to multi-year highs, dragged stocks lower to start September and knocked gold down 2.3% on the day. Traders now put roughly two-in-three odds on the Federal Reserve raising rates when it meets in two weeks.
Natural gas sat out the move, holding near $2.94 per million BTU. The OPEC basket climbed 2.9% to $89.59.
What to watch
Iran says a response is coming, and its record this year says take that seriously. Tuesday's missile launches toward US bases in Jordan and the UAE followed the Larak strike by just two days. At the same time, Tehran is signaling it wants an exit, with officials urging a return to the June agreement, CNBC reported.
The gap between those two messages is where oil will trade. More attacks on shipping would push crude higher still. A real move back toward talks could pull several dollars of risk premium right back out.