The June WTI contract (CLM26) expires Tuesday, May 20. Volume has already shifted to July (CLN26), which trades at $101.02. June still prints $105.42. That gap of $4.40 is the price the headline "drops" on the roll, even though nothing fundamental changed.
This is the second monthly roll since the war began. Last month the May-to-June roll clipped about $4 from the quote. The pattern repeats because the curve is in steep backwardation, with each month cheaper than the one before it.
The curve today
| Contract | Month | Price |
|---|---|---|
| CLM26 | June 2026 (expiring) | $105.42 |
| CLN26 | July 2026 | $101.02 |
| CLQ26 | August 2026 | $96.14 |
| CLU26 | September 2026 | $91.83 |
| CLV26 | October 2026 | $88.31 |
| CLX26 | November 2026 | $85.60 |
| CLZ26 | December 2026 | $83.42 |
Front-to-back spread: $22 between June and December. That is wider than the $18 gap a month ago. The curve has steepened.
Brent shows the same shape. The July Brent contract (QAN26) trades at $109.26. August is $104.74. December sits at $90.98. Backwardation of roughly $18 across six months.
What steepened it
Three things happened this week that pushed prompt crude higher and pulled the back end lower.
First, the ceasefire collapsed. Trump rejected Iran's latest counterproposal and said the ceasefire is "on life support." That repriced near-term supply risk upward.
Second, the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing produced vague promises on Hormuz but no concrete timeline. Treasury Secretary Bessent said China would "work behind the scenes" to help reopen the Strait. Markets took that as confirmation that reopening is not imminent.
Third, EIA data on Tuesday showed crude inventories fell 2.19 million barrels, the fourth straight weekly draw. Prompt physical barrels are getting scarcer.
The back end dropped because the market still expects the Strait to reopen eventually. December WTI at $83 is a bet on resolution. June at $105 is the price of needing oil right now.
What this means for the headline price
On Tuesday night, our quoted WTI price will step down from the June contract to July. If July holds at $101, the headline moves from $105 to $101 without a single barrel changing hands.
The same will happen again in late June when July expires and August ($96.14) takes over. Each roll clips another $4 to $5 at the current curve shape.
If backwardation flattens, either because the war ends or because demand destruction catches up to the physical squeeze, the rolls get smaller and the headline stabilizes. Until then, the monthly expiry keeps carving visible notches into the price.