Crude is back above $100. That much, everyone agrees on. Where it goes next depends entirely on who you ask, and the gap between the most bearish and most bullish calls on Wall Street has never been wider.
Trump's blockade order sent WTI surging 7.6% to $104.49 on Monday morning. Brent jumped 7.5% to $102.91. But the real story is not today's price. It is the range of outcomes that major banks are now putting on paper.
The bull case: $150 and beyond
Onyx Capital started Monday by telling Bloomberg that crude should be "much higher" if the US actually follows through on the blockade. Their number: $150 a barrel. Onyx MD Jorge Montepeque added that the blockade threat itself "makes no sense," which only underscores how unpredictable the policy backdrop has become.
JPMorgan put the same number on the table under one condition: tanker traffic stays frozen through mid-May. Their commodities desk argues that a prolonged shutdown would drain every buffer the market has, from strategic reserves to floating storage, leaving physical barrels too scarce to keep prices below triple digits.
Wood Mackenzie went further back in March. Gulf producers collectively pump about 20 million barrels a day, and roughly 15 million of those barrels are now locked out of global trade. No spare capacity anywhere can fill a hole that large. Chairman Simon Flowers said $200 was "not outside the realms of possibility," and the firm called $150 realistic within weeks. Their logic boils down to this: prices keep climbing until enough buyers walk away.
Barclays carved out two tiers. Two more weeks of open conflict gets Brent to $120. A full escalation brings $150 "before the end of the month."
The bear case: $85 by year-end
Goldman Sachs cut its Q2 Brent target to $90 on April 9, the day after the ceasefire deal. Q3 sits at $82, Q4 at $80. Their full-year average: $85.
That sounds out of step with a market that just jumped 8% in a single session. But Goldman's analysts are betting the ceasefire holds long enough for Hormuz traffic to normalize gradually. The IEA estimates that once Gulf production comes back online, the world would be sitting on a 3.7 million barrel per day surplus, more than enough to crush the war premium and push prices back toward pre-crisis levels.
Goldman does hedge. If the ceasefire falls apart and 2 million barrels per day stay offline through Q4, their severe-case Brent target jumps to $115. But even in an extreme scenario, $135 remains their ceiling.
The middle ground
The U.S. Energy Information Administration published its April outlook last week. Brent peaks at $115 in Q2 before easing as shut-in barrels gradually return. That lands the EIA roughly halfway between the banks, betting on a painful but temporary disruption.
Kalshi's prediction market tells a similar story with real money behind it. Before the ceasefire, traders priced a 56% chance that WTI would top $130 at some point this year. By April 7, that number had collapsed to 31%. The odds of reaching $115 fell to 57% from nearly 80%.
That repricing happened before Sunday's blockade announcement. Those odds have almost certainly snapped back.
What separates the forecasts
The entire $65 spread comes down to a single variable: how long does Hormuz stay closed?
If the ceasefire holds and tanker traffic gradually resumes over the next few weeks, Goldman's $85 base case looks reasonable. A 3.7 million bpd surplus would crush the geopolitical premium that has kept crude above $100.
If the blockade turns the strait into a contested military zone where both navies interdict shipping, the supply math flips. Barclays puts the total supply at risk from a prolonged Hormuz shutdown at 13 to 14 million barrels per day. No combination of strategic reserves, shale ramp-ups, or demand cuts can cover a shortfall that massive. That is the $150 scenario.
The week ahead
WTI traded between $92.70 and $116.42 over the past seven days alone. Nearly $24 of range in one week tells you everything about the uncertainty priced into this market right now.
Goldman warned last week that Brent stays above $100 all year if Hormuz remains shut for one more month. Sunday's blockade announcement makes that timeline look generous.
Two things will decide which forecast wins. First, whether the US Navy actually begins intercepting ships Monday at 10 a.m. as CENTCOM announced. Second, whether the April 22 ceasefire deadline passes with or without a deal. The first reveals if this is a bluff. The second determines whether $85 or $150 is the better bet.