Two months versus four
Brent crude hit $92.69 a barrel on Saturday. WTI reached $90.90. Both benchmarks have roughly doubled from their pre-war levels near $65, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for a second straight week.
The damage is global, but across Asia the pain is landing unevenly. India, which imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil and sources nearly half of it from the Persian Gulf, holds roughly two months of strategic reserves. China, the world's largest oil importer, has between three and four months of supply tucked away. That gap matters enormously right now.
India: few options, rising costs
New Delhi's problem is structural. After cutting back Russian crude purchases under US pressure earlier this year, Indian refiners leaned even harder on Gulf barrels. When those barrels stopped flowing through Hormuz, alternatives were thin on the ground.
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals declared force majeure on fuel exports on March 4. The move signals that Indian refiners are prioritizing domestic supply over international contracts, a step that Southeast Asian buyers who depend on Indian diesel and jet fuel will feel within days.
The fiscal math is ugly. India's existing fuel and fertilizer subsidy budget sits around $24 billion for the current fiscal year. At oil prices above $80, the government faces an additional $4 to $6 billion in subsidy costs. A weakening rupee makes every imported barrel more expensive still.
Then there is the human dimension. Roughly 10 million Indian nationals work in the Gulf, sending home about $52 billion a year in remittances, or 40 percent of India's $130 billion annual total. Prolonged conflict threatens those flows too.
China: bruised but buffered
Beijing faces the same price shock, but its position is fundamentally different. China buys about 90 percent of Iran's oil exports and sources close to half its crude from the Gulf. Losing access to Hormuz is a blow.
But China spent the past two years gorging on discounted Russian crude. Shipments from Russia hit a record 2.07 million barrels per day in February. Those barrels arrive by pipeline and through Pacific ports, nowhere near the Persian Gulf. Moscow has every incentive to keep pumping.
On March 5, Beijing ordered its largest refineries to halt diesel and petrol exports. That is a conservation measure, not a panic signal. With three to four months of strategic reserves and a functioning Russian pipeline, China can absorb weeks of Hormuz disruption without rationing.
Japan and South Korea: sitting on stockpiles
Both countries source 80 to 90 percent of their oil from the Gulf, a dependence that looks terrifying on paper. In practice, Tokyo and Seoul each hold more than 200 days of oil reserves, the deepest cushions in Asia.
Neither government has announced emergency measures beyond routine monitoring. Their message to markets: we have time.
Thailand blinks first
Bangkok suspended all crude and petroleum product exports on March 1, the first country in the region to impose an outright ban. Thailand is a net oil importer with limited reserves, and the government chose to lock down supply before prices climbed further.
The export ban is a warning sign. If other mid-sized Asian economies follow suit, spot markets for refined products could tighten fast, adding another layer of cost on top of already elevated crude prices.
The shipping bottleneck compounds everything
Price is only part of the problem. Tim Huxley, chairman of Mandarin Shipping, estimates that over 3,000 ships are stuck inside the Persian Gulf, representing about 6 percent of the global oil tanker fleet. Even if Hormuz reopened tomorrow, clearing that backlog would take weeks.
VLCC day rates have tripled since January, hitting $423,736 per session. War-risk insurance premiums jumped from 0.125 percent to as high as 1 percent of a ship's insured value. For a $100 million tanker, that means the premium for a single voyage leapt from $200,000 to $1 million.
These costs ultimately land on Asian refiners and consumers.
What comes next
The divide is clear. Japan and South Korea can wait. China can adapt. India and Thailand are already making forced moves, and smaller economies like Pakistan and Bangladesh face even tougher choices with thinner reserves.
For New Delhi, the crisis is a harsh reminder that energy security cannot rely on a single chokepoint. Two months of reserves looked adequate in peacetime. In a shooting war over the Strait of Hormuz, it is barely enough to buy time.