Europe pays without buying more
Europe's energy import bill has grown by €24 billion since US and Israeli forces struck Iran at the end of February. The figure, drawn from European Commission data and tallied by CNN, works out to around $587 million in extra daily spending. None of it has bought more fuel for the bloc.
The pattern is the central feature of every supply-side energy shock. Buyers do not consume less in the short term because consumption is locked into vehicle fleets, factory schedules, and home heating systems. Prices clear the market by going up, and the bill is paid.
Where the price hits the pump
Diesel has done most of the damage. Across the bloc, the average diesel price went from €1.59 a litre on February 23 to €2.01 on April 20, a climb of 26 percent. Petrol moved less, going from €1.64 to €1.83, or 12 percent.
Diesel matters more than petrol for Europe's economy because it powers the freight network. Truck operators feed the fuel cost into prices for groceries, building materials, and parcel delivery. Industry groups have warned that the upward pressure on diesel will keep rolling through consumer prices for several months even if crude stabilizes tomorrow.
Crude has not stabilized. WTI was trading at $99.88 a barrel Tuesday, up 3.51 percent, and Brent was at $111.11, up 2.59 percent. The latest jump came on news that the UAE will leave OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, removing the cartel's third-biggest producer from the deal that constrains global output.
Germany pulls the tax lever
Berlin's coalition partners agreed on April 13 to lower the mineral oil tax by roughly 17 cents a litre on both fuels. The Bundestag signed off on April 24. The reduction takes effect May 1 and runs through the end of June. It is paired with a one-time tax-exempt bonus capped at €1,000 that companies can disburse to staff at any point before July 2027. Together the measures are worth around €1.6 billion.
The cut is short, narrow, and politically fast. It is also blunt. Energy economists quoted by Clean Energy Wire described the package as badly aimed, since the relief flows to high-mileage commercial drivers and high-income drivers in the same proportion as it does to households that cannot afford the new prices. Berlin's response: the political cost of doing nothing is higher.
What is behind the bill
The supply side is straightforward. Roughly 20 percent of seaborne oil normally flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and the strait remains effectively closed nine weeks into the war. Refined product stocks in the Mediterranean basin are tighter than at any point since 2022, and Europe has only weeks of jet fuel inventory left at current burn rates, according to industry reports earlier this month.
Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, told clients in a recent note that the European outlook turns recessionary if the fighting drags into the back half of 2026 and the supply pinch widens further. The base case in most European central bank forecasts no longer assumes a near-term ceasefire.
What to watch
Three things. First, whether Germany's tax cut is copied by France, Italy, or Spain. Political pressure is rising in all three. Second, whether refiners draw down strategic stocks rather than rationing supply as Mediterranean inventories tighten further. Third, the next round of EU consumer price data, due mid-May, which will show whether the diesel pass-through is already feeding into general inflation.
The €24 billion figure is a snapshot of the past nine weeks. If Hormuz stays closed into the summer, the running total at the September inflection point will be considerably worse.