Five weeks into the Hormuz blockade, the oil shock is no longer just a trading-floor problem. Governments from Ljubljana to Manila are capping how much fuel their citizens can buy.
Slovenia moved first. Italy followed with airport-level jet fuel limits. The Philippines absorbed another brutal diesel hike on Tuesday. And the European Commission is quietly preparing a continent-wide fallback plan that includes fuel vouchers.
WTI crude traded at $114.62 per barrel on Monday, up 2.21%. Brent held at $110.26, up 0.49%.
Slovenia: army trucks at the gas station
On March 22, Slovenia became the first EU member state to cap fuel sales. Private drivers can buy no more than 50 liters per day, roughly 13 gallons. Businesses and farmers get a 200-liter ceiling.
Prime Minister Robert Golob said the country had enough fuel in storage but could not move it to gas stations fast enough. He called in the army to help with distribution. Part of the rationale was to stop what officials called "fuel tourism" - drivers from neighboring countries crossing into Slovenia to fill up at lower prices.
The caps remain in effect with no end date announced.
Italy: four airports on jet fuel rations
Italy took a different route. On April 5, Air BP Italia imposed supply ceilings at Milan Linate, Bologna, Venice, and Treviso. Flights under three hours face a cap of 2,000 to 2,500 liters depending on the airport - barely enough for a Boeing 737 to stay airborne for an hour. Medical evacuations, state aircraft, and long-haul routes get filled first.
The restrictions run through at least April 9. For passengers, the risk is not grounded planes but rerouted ones. Airlines that cannot refuel in northern Italy will tanker extra fuel from other airports, adding weight and burning more kerosene in the process.
Europe has been warning about jet fuel shortages for weeks. Italy is the first country where those warnings turned into hard limits.
Philippines: 15 straight weeks of diesel hikes
On Tuesday, Shell Philippines raised diesel prices by 19.80 pesos per liter. Petron added 18.80. SEAOIL tacked on 17.95. It was the 15th consecutive weekly increase for diesel and the 13th for gasoline.
At some Manila stations, diesel now costs around 147 pesos per liter. Industry sources told Rappler that prices could reach 166 pesos before the month is out.
The Philippines imports nearly all its fuel and sits at the end of a supply chain that runs straight through the Strait of Hormuz. Every disruption on that route lands at Filipino pumps within two weeks.
UK dusts off the 1976 playbook
Britain has not rationed fuel yet, but Whitehall has started dusting off a law from the 1970s. The Energy Act 1976 gives ministers the power to limit how much fuel people can buy and to reserve supply for hospitals, police, and other critical services.
British media have floated a 30-pound-per-visit cap, though no official has put a number on record. The fact that the government is running through rationing scenarios at all tells you how close London thinks this could get.
Brussels prepares Plan B
The European Commission has stayed vague in public. Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said the EU is considering "all possible options" but declined to name them. Behind closed doors, officials have circulated draft proposals for fuel vouchers and coordinated purchase limits across member states, according to Pravda EU.
The IEA, meanwhile, has already pulled the biggest lever it has. Member countries released a record volume from strategic petroleum reserves in March, but the release barely dented the price. Brent is still above $110.
The pattern
Each country is rationing in its own way. Slovenia capped volume. Italy capped specific airports. The Philippines let prices float and watched them double. The UK is preparing but has not acted. Brussels is drafting but has not published.
What ties them together is the same 21-mile chokepoint. Roughly a fifth of the world's oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz before Iran shut it down on February 28. The IEA has called it the largest supply disruption in history. Five weeks in, the shelves are not empty, but the rules are changing at gas stations, airports, and government offices from Southeast Asia to Southern Europe.
The next test comes Tuesday night. If Trump's 8 p.m. deadline passes without a deal, the list of countries rationing fuel is likely to get longer.