A shift in the demand map
For decades, China dominated conversations about oil demand growth. That story is changing. India has emerged as the primary driver of global oil consumption, a shift that caught many forecasters off guard with its speed.
OPEC's latest projections show Indian demand rising 3.4% in 2025, double China's pace. The gap widens further in 2026, with India's consumption expected to jump 4.7% compared to China's 1.6%.
WTI crude trades at $59.57 per barrel today, with Brent at $64.26. Both benchmarks remain under pressure from global demand concerns, but India's appetite offers a bright spot.
The numbers tell the story
India's oil demand hit 5.55 million barrels per day in 2024. OPEC expects that figure to climb to 5.74 million bpd this year and reach 5.99 million bpd by 2026.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration puts it bluntly: India accounts for 25% of global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025. Transportation fuels lead the charge, with both years adding 300,000 bpd to India's consumption.
Looking further out, OPEC's World Oil Outlook 2050 projects India adding 8 million bpd to its demand by mid-century. China? Just 2.5 million bpd over the same period.
Economic engine firing on all cylinders
India's GDP growth tells much of the story. The economy is expanding at 6.4% in 2026, making it the world's fastest-growing major economy according to Morgan Stanley.
The auto sector reflects this momentum. India's automotive market is on track to hit $300 billion by 2026, fueled by rising incomes and an expanding middle class. Passenger vehicle sales should cross 6 million units this year, with SUVs claiming over 55% of that total.
Petrol vehicles still dominate, accounting for nearly 60% of the market. Electric vehicles are growing fast but from a small base. EV penetration might reach 12-18% by year end, up from single digits in 2023.
Refiners race to keep up
Indian oil companies are betting big on domestic demand. Over the next seven years, the country will add 1 million bpd of new refining capacity, more than any nation except China.
Refining capacity has already climbed from 215 million metric tonnes per annum to 258 million MMTPA in fiscal 2025. Indian Oil Corporation's Panipat expansion, adding 10 million tonnes per annum, represents the largest single project.
Supply lines in flux
India's crude import mix is shifting. December 2025 data showed Russian crude falling to its lowest share since January 2023, while OPEC's slice of India's crude basket climbed to 53.2%, an 11-month high.
Russia's share dropped to 27.4%, though Moscow remains India's largest single supplier ahead of Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Reliance Industries' Jamnagar complex, the world's largest refinery, recently received fresh shipments of Russian Urals crude. The relationship endures despite Western sanctions pressure.
The government is watching closely. India's oil ministry now requires refiners to submit weekly reports on crude imports from Russia and the United States, a directive reportedly coming from the Prime Minister's Office.
What it means for markets
India's rise as the marginal demand driver reshapes how traders and analysts think about oil markets. Chinese consumption data once moved prices reliably. Indian demand data may soon carry similar weight.
For producers, the math is straightforward. India needs more crude, its refiners are expanding, and its economy shows no signs of slowing. In a market worried about peak demand, India offers a different narrative: sustained growth for years to come.