Market braces for March 1 decision
Eight OPEC+ countries that have been holding production flat since January are now leaning toward resuming output increases starting in April, according to Reuters sources familiar with the discussions.
The group meets March 1 to make a final call. Saudi Arabia and the UAE want to claw back market share lost during months of voluntary cuts, and prices hovering near $68 for Brent crude give them room to move.
No decision has been taken yet. Talks will continue in the weeks ahead of the meeting, the sources said.
Dueling demand forecasts complicate the picture
OPEC projects global oil demand will grow by 1.4 million barrels per day this year. The IEA sees roughly half that, at 850,000 bpd, after slashing its forecast last week. That gap matters.
If the IEA is right, adding barrels to an already oversupplied market risks sending prices sharply lower. The agency warned on February 12 that supply could exceed demand by 3.7 million barrels per day later this year.
Brent crude traded at $67.92 per barrel on Sunday. WTI sat at $63.05 and the OPEC basket at $62.94. The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent will average just $58 per barrel across 2026, dropping to $53 in 2027.
Saudi Aramco CEO pushes back on glut fears
Saudi Aramco chief Amin Nasser has dismissed the bearish outlook. He called forecasts of a massive oil glut "seriously exaggerated," pointing to rising demand and global stocks sitting below the five-year average.
Nasser has a point about inventories. Winter weather knocked out 1.2 million barrels per day of global supply in January. Cold snaps hit North American production especially hard, while outages in Kazakhstan, Russia, and Venezuela also cut into flows.
But inventories alone won’t settle the debate. Non-OPEC+ supply is growing fast, with the EIA projecting total world production will rise by 2.4 million bpd to 108.6 million bpd this year. Growth is roughly split between OPEC+ and producers outside the group.
What to watch
The March 1 meeting will weigh several crosscurrents: US sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, the EU’s fresh ban on refined products made from Russian crude, and ongoing US-Iran tensions that have kept a geopolitical risk premium in prices since January.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE hold the most spare capacity and stand to gain the most from any restart. Iraq and Kazakhstan, both chronic over-producers, could complicate compliance if the taps reopen.
Traders are already positioning for volatility around the decision date.