Biggest weekly pull on record
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 360 billion cubic foot net withdrawal from Lower 48 working gas storage for the week ending January 30. No week on record has come close. The draw exceeded the five-year average of 190 Bcf by 89%.
Before the storm, gas stocks sat comfortably at 3,065 Bcf, about 6% above the five-year average. After the withdrawal, they dropped 1.1% below it. Two weeks wiped out a surplus that had taken months to build.
Fern hit the Gulf Coast hardest
Winter Storm Fern dragged freezing air across the Lower 48, but the Gulf Coast bore the brunt. Temperatures dropped below freezing on January 25, causing equipment freeze-offs that shut in production at the worst possible time.
Demand went through the roof. Residential and commercial gas consumption between January 23 and 26 ran 29% above normal, roughly 13.9 Bcf/d higher than the five-year average, according to the EIA. The combination of surging demand and falling supply created a perfect storm for storage.
Henry Hub spot prices hit $9.03/MMBtu on January 28, up $4.05 from a week earlier and $5.60 above the year-ago price. That kind of move hasn't been seen since the 2021 Texas freeze.
Prices have cooled, but storage hasn't recovered
Gas has given back most of those gains. Henry Hub traded at $3.21/MMBtu on February 9, well below its January peak. But the price drop masks a more troubling reality: the storage cushion is gone.
Energy storage across the board has been tightening. The API reported an 11.1 million barrel crude draw last week, the steepest since mid-2023. On the gas side, the strain looks even sharper.
Spring refill faces a narrower window
If withdrawals match the five-year pace through the rest of winter, total inventory should land around 1,995 Bcf by March 31, according to EIA projections. Workable, but with little room for another cold snap.
The EIA expects Henry Hub to average just under $3.50/MMBtu for 2026 before climbing to nearly $4.60 in 2027, when new LNG export facilities start pulling more feed gas from the domestic market. For now, traders are betting mild weather carries them through to spring without another scare.
The record draw is a reminder of how fast that bet can go wrong.