Open waterway, closed book
Iran told the United Nations on Tuesday that commercial vessels may use the Strait of Hormuz again, as long as they qualify as "non-hostile." The catch: Tehran did not define the term, did not publish the rules, and left enforcement to the Revolutionary Guard.
The announcement landed while Brent crude traded near $99.73 a barrel, down 4.6% on the session. WTI fell to $89.13. Both benchmarks have swung wildly since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, with Brent touching $119 earlier this month before pulling back on hopes of a diplomatic exit.
Five ships in a day
The numbers tell the real story. Only five vessels transited the strait on Monday, according to vessel-tracking data, down from a peacetime average of about 120 a day. Since March 1, commodities carriers have made just 149 crossings. That is a 95% collapse, according to analytics firm Kpler.
Nearly all observable oil traffic belongs to Iran itself. Iranian-flagged tankers accounted for 98% of crude movements through the strait in early March, averaging roughly 1.3 million barrels a day, Kpler data shows.
Who got through, and who didn't
Iran has been picking winners for weeks. Pakistan's Aframax tanker Karachi crossed on March 15. India sent two LPG carriers through shortly after, in what Tehran's ambassador called "a rare exception." One Turkish vessel received clearance after using an Iranian port, though 15 other Turkish-owned ships were still waiting.
China, which receives 45% of its oil via Hormuz, has been negotiating access since early March. France and Italy have requested talks. Japan got a green light on March 21.
The pattern is selective, not open. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said passage decisions rest with the military, suggesting approvals are based on geopolitical calculations rather than any published framework.
Transit fees and a vetting system
Bloomberg reported Monday that Iran has begun charging some vessels as much as $2 million per voyage to cross. Separately, the IRGC is building a vetting and registration system to formalize what has been an ad hoc process, according to Al Jazeera.
For shipping companies already paying record insurance premiums, where war-risk rates in the Persian Gulf have jumped to levels not seen since the Tanker War of the 1980s, the added cost and uncertainty are hard to swallow.
Why it matters for oil prices
Before the war, roughly 20 million barrels a day of crude and products flowed through Hormuz. That traffic has dropped to a trickle, creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, according to the International Energy Agency.
The IEA's record 400-million-barrel reserve release on March 11 barely dented prices. The US contribution of 1.4 million barrels per day covers just 15% of lost Hormuz supply. Goldman Sachs warned last week that triple-digit oil could persist for years if the strait stays restricted.
Meanwhile, Washington sent Tehran a 15-point plan to end the conflict and is pushing for a one-month ceasefire. Asian equity markets rallied overnight. The Nikkei rose 2.3% and the KOSPI gained 2.6%, both on hopes that talks are gaining traction.
What to watch
The gap between Iran's words and the shipping data is wide. Five transits a day is not an open waterway. Until insurers drop war-risk premiums, until the IRGC publishes actual rules, and until non-Iranian tankers move freely, the strait remains effectively closed to most commercial traffic.
Brent's slide below $100 reflects ceasefire optimism, not a fixed supply chain. If talks stall, traders will be reminded of that quickly.