Oil prices maintained their weekly gains on Friday as escalating protests in Iran raised concerns about potential supply disruptions from one of the world's largest crude producers.
Brent crude traded at $62.85 per barrel, up 0.63% on the day, while West Texas Intermediate held at $58.70 per barrel. Both benchmarks are on track for their third consecutive weekly gain as traders weigh the risk of Iranian supply disruptions.
Energy workers join nationwide strikes
The protests, which began in Tehran's bazaars on December 28 over rising inflation, have spread across all 31 of Iran's provinces and morphed into broader anti-government demonstrations.
In a significant escalation, workers at the South Pars refineries joined nationwide strikes on January 7. South Pars is Iran's largest natural gas field and a critical source of revenue for the Iranian government. The participation of energy sector workers marks a dangerous expansion of the unrest into the country's vital oil and gas infrastructure.
Death toll rises amid crackdown
Activist groups report that more than 500 people have been killed and over 10,000 detained during the government crackdown. Iranian authorities have imposed an internet blackout lasting more than 60 hours, limiting outside access to information.
Iran's attorney general has warned that protesters could face charges of being an "enemy of God," which carries the death penalty.
Supply risk back on the radar
Iran produces more than 3 million barrels of oil per day, making any disruption to its output a significant concern for global markets.
"Iran protests seem to be gathering momentum, leading the market to worry about disruptions," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity analysis at Saxo Bank.
President Trump has warned Iranian authorities against violence, telling oil executives that "they better not start shooting, because we'll start shooting too." The administration is reportedly weighing military options, cyber attacks, and additional sanctions.
Market outlook
The geopolitical risk premium from Iran comes at a time when oil markets were otherwise facing oversupply concerns. Analysts at Goldman Sachs forecast Brent at $56 per barrel for 2026, while JPMorgan sees it at $58.
However, any significant disruption to Iranian production could quickly shift the supply-demand balance. Traders will be watching closely as protests enter their third week with no signs of abating.