Brent's June contract trades above $108 today. But buy a barrel for December delivery and you will pay just $84.90. The futures curve - the chain of contracts stretching months and years into the future - is drawing a steep line from crisis-level prices down to something resembling normal.
That gap tells a story. Traders with real money on the line are collectively betting that the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the geopolitical risk premium bleeds out, and oil settles back toward $80–$85 by the second half of 2026.
Whether they are right is another question.
The curve right now
Here is where Brent and WTI contracts sit across the next several months as of March 30:
Brent crude (QA)
| Contract | Month | Price | vs. front month |
|---|---|---|---|
| QAK26 | May 2026 | $115.58 | - |
| QAM26 | Jun 2026 | $108.40 | -$7.18 |
| QAN26 | Jul 2026 | $101.18 | -$14.40 |
| QAQ26 | Aug 2026 | $95.85 | -$19.73 |
| QAU26 | Sep 2026 | $91.19 | -$24.39 |
| QAV26 | Oct 2026 | $88.27 | -$27.31 |
| QAZ26 | Dec 2026 | $84.90 | -$30.68 |
| QAH27 | Mar 2027 | $82.21 | -$33.37 |
WTI crude (CL)
| Contract | Month | Price | vs. front month |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLK26 | May 2026 | $102.52 | - |
| CLM26 | Jun 2026 | $96.25 | -$6.27 |
| CLN26 | Jul 2026 | $90.96 | -$11.56 |
| CLQ26 | Aug 2026 | $86.83 | -$15.69 |
| CLU26 | Sep 2026 | $83.54 | -$18.98 |
| CLV26 | Oct 2026 | $80.93 | -$21.59 |
| CLZ26 | Dec 2026 | $77.56 | -$24.96 |
| CLH27 | Mar 2027 | $74.88 | -$27.64 |
Brent drops 26% from May to December. WTI sheds 24%. That degree of backwardation has not been normal for years. Before the Hormuz closure, the curve was relatively flat with Brent's front month around $73 and the back end in the mid-$60s.
What the curve is pricing in
Goldman Sachs estimates $14 to $18 per barrel of the current Brent price is geopolitical risk premium - the market's charge for the possibility that the Hormuz crisis drags on or escalates further. Strip that out and the underlying price lands in the $90–$95 range, still elevated but nowhere near the $115 on today's ticker.
The December contracts go further, discounting even that residual premium. Brent at $84.90 for year-end delivery implies the market expects:
- The Strait of Hormuz reopens to commercial shipping, at least partially
- OPEC+ spare capacity fills part of the supply gap
- Global demand softens under the weight of triple-digit oil
Morgan Stanley's commodities team put it bluntly in a March note: the back end of the curve has shifted up about $12–$15 from pre-war levels, meaning traders do not expect a full return to $65–$70 oil. The new floor, if the crisis ends cleanly, sits closer to $80.
The front of the curve, meanwhile, stays hostage to headlines. Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait to April 6. Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb add another chokepoint to the equation. Any escalation could push May and June contracts higher still. Any diplomatic breakthrough would collapse them toward the back of the curve fast.
The three scenarios the curve implies
Quick resolution (curve flattens, front falls toward $85–$90) If the Strait reopens by mid-April, the front months would shed their risk premium rapidly. Brent's June contract at $108.40 would likely converge toward the $85–$90 area where Q4 contracts already sit. Physical markets would take longer to normalize, but paper prices would move overnight.
Slow grind (curve stays steep through summer) If the crisis persists but does not worsen, expect front-month Brent to drift lower month by month as each contract rolls forward. The curve already prices this path - a $7 drop per month from May through August. The market absorbs the disruption through demand destruction, strategic reserve releases, and longer shipping routes around the Cape.
Escalation (curve inverts further, back end lifts) If fighting spreads or Houthis close the Bab el-Mandeb alongside Hormuz, the back of the curve would reprice sharply higher. December Brent above $100 would signal the market no longer believes in a 2026 resolution. We are not there yet - the smiley-face shape of the current curve still bets on a temporary disruption.
The contract roll - why prices "jump" between months
Brent's May 2026 contract expired at the end of March, making June the new front month. That mechanical switch dropped the headline Brent price from around $115 to $108 overnight - not because oil got cheaper, but because the reference contract changed.
WTI's May contract is still active until around April 21 before June takes over there too. Until then, the two benchmarks show different contract months, which can make the Brent-WTI spread look wider than usual.
For anyone tracking prices on apps or financial sites, the key detail: most platforms switch to the new front-month contract automatically. The price shift is mechanical, not a sell-off.
Quick reference - futures month codes:
| F | G | H | J | K | M | N | Q | U | V | X | Z |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
So CLM26 = WTI June 2026, QAZ26 = Brent December 2026.
What to watch
The April 6 deadline for Iran is the next inflection point. If it passes without progress, front-month contracts likely retest the March highs above $112. If talks gain traction, expect a sharp compression of the curve as the risk premium drains out.
Either way, the back of the curve around $80–$85 is where the market thinks oil belongs once the dust settles. Whether that takes weeks or months is the only real question the futures market hasn't answered yet.