Biggest single-session jump in months
Crude oil ripped higher when futures trading opened Sunday at 6 p.m. ET. West Texas Intermediate surged more than 8%, or $5.55, to $72.57 per barrel. Brent crude climbed about 9%, or $6.54, to $79.41. Both benchmarks posted their largest gains since the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war.
The catalyst was clear. US and Israeli forces struck Iranian military targets on February 28, escalating a standoff that had already kept oil traders on edge for weeks. Within hours, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that handles roughly 20% of global seaborne oil, dropped by 70%.
Banks scramble to revise forecasts
Wall Street moved fast. Barclays told clients that Brent could reach $100 per barrel if the security situation in the Middle East keeps spiraling. UBS went further, warning that a sustained supply disruption could send spot prices above $120.
Even before the strikes, forecasts had been drifting upward. A Reuters poll of 34 analysts in February put average 2026 Brent at $63.85, up from $62.02 a month earlier. WTI forecasts climbed to $60.38 from $58.72. Those numbers now look far too low.
The geopolitical risk premium baked into crude sits somewhere between $4 and $10 per barrel, according to the same poll. Friday's escalation may have pushed it higher still.
OPEC+ adds barrels, but can they reach buyers?
OPEC+ announced a 206,000 barrel-per-day production increase for April, beating analyst expectations. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman are all contributing.
But Jorge León at Rystad Energy argued the production boost misses the point. "Markets are more concerned with whether barrels can move than with spare capacity on paper," he said. If Gulf exports face physical constraints at Hormuz, the extra output stays landlocked.
Iran typically ships about 1.6 million barrels per day, almost entirely to China. Those flows face the most immediate risk.
What to watch this week
Traders will track three things closely. First, whether tanker traffic through Hormuz picks up or stays frozen. Second, any Iranian retaliation that targets oil infrastructure directly. Third, whether Washington signals a willingness to de-escalate or presses further.
Brent traded at $78.88 and WTI at $72.21 as of early Sunday. Gold also surged, touching $5,393.90 per troy ounce, as investors piled into safe havens.