Production pause holds through first quarter
OPEC+ will convene its next ministerial meeting on February 1, with the eight-nation coalition expected to maintain its cautious approach to production policy as oil prices hover near the critical $60 per barrel threshold.
Brent crude is currently trading at $64.22 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate sits at $59.45, leaving little room for the alliance to consider unwinding voluntary cuts that have supported prices since late 2023.
Current production targets
The eight participating countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman) reaffirmed their decision on January 4 to pause production increments through February and March 2026, citing seasonal demand weakness.
Under the current agreement, required production levels for Q1 2026 are:
| Country | Target (million bpd) |
|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 10.103 |
| Russia | 9.574 |
| Iraq | 4.273 |
| UAE | 3.411 |
| Kuwait | 2.580 |
| Kazakhstan | 1.569 |
| Algeria | 0.971 |
| Oman | 0.811 |
The group has stated that the 1.65 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts may be returned gradually, subject to market conditions.
Compliance improvements underway
A key focus for the February meeting will be compensation cuts, as four producers work to make up for past overproduction. Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman have submitted updated plans to the OPEC secretariat, with total compensation cuts set to reach 829,000 barrels per day by June, triple the December level of 267,000 bpd.
Kazakhstan accounts for the largest share, with cutbacks reaching 669,000 bpd by midyear, up from 131,000 bpd in December. The Central Asian producer has struggled with quota compliance due to operational issues at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.
Market outlook
The cautious stance reflects growing concerns about supply balances in 2026. Many forecasters project a significant supply surplus this year as non-OPEC production continues to grow, particularly from the United States, Brazil, and Guyana.
The group has indicated it may extend the production pause or even reverse planned output increases if market conditions deteriorate further. With WTI recently breaking below $60 and some analysts warning of potential declines toward $50, OPEC+ appears content to wait and assess before making any policy shifts.
What to watch
Key items on the February 1 agenda include:
- Assessment of Q1 demand seasonality
- Compliance and compensation progress review
- Non-OPEC supply growth projections
- Potential extension of production pause into Q2
The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will continue holding monthly meetings to track member compliance and respond to changing market conditions. For the full schedule of upcoming OPEC+ meetings, EIA reports, and other market-moving events, visit our energy calendar.