WTI crude closed at $65.52 per barrel Thursday, up nearly 17% from the January 7 low of $55.99. Brent hit $69.67. Both benchmarks are at their highest levels in weeks, and that rally gives Saudi Arabia and its allies fresh data to weigh when they sit down virtually on Saturday.
What is on the table
The eight OPEC+ producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — locked in their current production freeze back in November 2025. That decision paused any unwinding of voluntary cuts through the first quarter of 2026.
So far, the group has restored 2.88 million barrels per day of previously curtailed output between April and December 2025. Another 1.24 million bpd remains off the market. Saturday's call will determine whether any of that sidelined crude comes back in April or whether the freeze stretches into the second quarter.
Surplus fears favor caution
The International Energy Agency's January Oil Market Report projects global supply will outstrip demand by 4.25 million bpd in the first quarter alone — roughly 4% of world consumption. For the full year, the IEA sees the gap narrowing to 3.69 million bpd, still far above historical norms.
Global output is expected to climb 2.5 million bpd this year to 108.7 million bpd, driven by expansion in the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada. Demand growth of 930,000 bpd leans heavily on petrochemicals rather than transportation, as electric vehicle adoption eats into gasoline use.
Trading house Trafigura has warned of a potential "super glut." Adding barrels into that environment looks risky.
Bulls see a different picture
Not everyone reads the numbers the same way. OPEC's own forecasters expect demand to grow by 1.38 million bpd in 2026 — nearly 50% faster than the IEA's estimate. By OPEC's math, supply and demand are roughly balanced, making deeper cuts unnecessary.
Then there is price itself. WTI above $65 sits comfortably above the $62 to $64 Permian Basin breakeven range identified in Dallas Federal Reserve surveys. Higher prices also mean higher revenue for producers who have endured months of restraint.
A winter storm last weekend knocked out 2 million barrels per day of US production, tightening short-term supply. If disruptions linger, the market could absorb extra OPEC+ barrels more easily than the headline surplus figures suggest.
Saudi-UAE friction adds a wildcard
Relations between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have frayed publicly over their opposing stances on Yemen, a rare rift between the two Gulf allies. Delegates said in early January that the disagreement had not altered OPEC+ policy. But the UAE has long pushed for a higher production quota, and any deepening split could complicate consensus.
Three outcomes to watch for Saturday
The group has stressed it will take a "cautious approach" and retain "full flexibility" to pause or reverse production changes. In practice, that points to three possible results:
- Extend the freeze into Q2. Most analysts consider this the base case, given the surplus forecasts and recent price swings.
- Signal a gradual ramp-up starting April. Possible if members judge the market can absorb additional supply without tanking prices.
- Defer to March. A middle path that buys time without locking in a commitment.
WTI's run from $56 to $65 in January has taken some pressure off the group. But with the IEA warning of structural oversupply and non-OPEC producers adding barrels fast, Saturday's decision will shape the oil market well beyond the next quarter.
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