Warships before tankers
Two weeks into the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the Pentagon is wrestling with a question it has not faced since the 1980s: how to push commercial oil through a contested waterway while a shooting war rages around it.
The plan on the table goes by the name Operation Epic Escort. Military planners at U.S. Central Command are sketching out a convoy system that would pair Navy destroyers and minesweepers with laden crude carriers, according to USNI News. But senior officials keep pumping the brakes.
"We are not ready," Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC on March 12. Every warship in the Fifth Fleet's area of operations is tied up hitting Iranian missile batteries, drone sites, and coastal defenses. Peeling off escorts for slow-moving tankers means fewer assets for strike missions.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a softer timeline the same day, telling Sky News that escorts would begin "as soon as militarily possible." He floated the idea of an international coalition sharing the burden.
The math doesn't add up yet
Before the war, roughly 20 million barrels a day of crude and refined products squeezed through the strait. That traffic has collapsed to a trickle. On March 9, commercial shipping hit a new low: one outbound transit, zero inbound.
Escorting even a fraction of normal traffic would require a naval presence the U.S. cannot spare right now. During the 1987-88 Tanker War, Operation Earnest Will convoyed reflagged Kuwaiti tankers with a dedicated task force. Today's strait is more dangerous. Iran's arsenal of anti-ship missiles, fast boats, and sea mines has grown dramatically since then.
Insurers have already fled. Five major P&I clubs pulled war risk cover in the first week of March, and premiums for the few remaining underwriters have jumped eightfold. Ship owners won't sail without coverage, and underwriters won't write policies without a credible security guarantee.
Iran picks who gets through
While Washington plans, Tehran is running its own transit policy. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps shut the strait to Western-linked vessels on February 28 but has quietly waved through select traffic.
On March 13, Turkey's transport minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu confirmed Iran approved passage for a Turkish-owned ship, the Rozana. Two Indian-flagged LPG carriers were also allowed through after diplomatic contacts between New Delhi and Tehran. Earlier, around March 8, a Greek-operated supertanker called the Shenlong slipped through with its transponder switched off, carrying one million barrels of Saudi crude bound for Mumbai.
The pattern suggests Iran wants to fracture the Western coalition by rewarding countries that stay neutral, or at least quiet. That selective approach keeps enough oil moving to prevent a total global meltdown while maximizing pressure on the U.S. and its allies.
Markets aren't waiting
Brent crude settled at 103.14 dollars per barrel on March 15, still well above the 70 dollar level that prevailed before the first bombs fell on February 28. WTI traded at 98.71 dollars. The record 400-million-barrel reserve release by the IEA has done little to cool prices. Traders see it as a stopgap, not a solution.
OPEC+ agreed on March 1 to add 206,000 barrels per day starting in April, but that volume barely registers against a 10-million-barrel shortfall from Gulf producers who physically cannot get their crude to market.
What comes next
The Pentagon has not set a date for the first convoy. Wright suggested the Navy could be in position by late March; analysts at Rapidan Energy think early April is more realistic.
An international escort force would help, but building one takes diplomacy and time. Britain and France have warships in the region. Japan and South Korea, both heavily dependent on Gulf crude, are under pressure to contribute. None have committed publicly.
Until warships line up alongside tankers, the strait stays closed to most of the world's oil fleet and prices stay elevated. The longer Operation Epic Escort remains a planning exercise rather than a convoy at sea, the deeper the economic damage runs.