Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi painted a dire picture of the Gulf's energy future on Friday, telling the Financial Times that every major oil and gas exporter in the region could be forced to stop shipments "within weeks" if the war on Iran drags on.
The warning landed on a market already stretched thin. Brent crude sat at $92.42 a barrel on Friday, up 7% on the day. WTI hit $90.84. Both benchmarks have surged more than 25% since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on March 1.
Force majeure "within days"
Al-Kaabi did not mince words. He told the FT that all Mideast Gulf exporters are likely to declare force majeure within days, a legal move that would free them from contractual delivery obligations. Oil prices could spike to $150 a barrel within two to three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz stays blocked, he said. Gas prices, meanwhile, could hit $40 per million British thermal units, roughly four times the level before the conflict started.
"GDP growth around the world will be impacted," al-Kaabi said.
About 700 ships are currently sitting idle on either side of Hormuz, unable to pass through the narrow waterway that handles a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. Intensifying sea battles between Iran and the US Navy have made the passage too dangerous for commercial vessels.
Qatar's own production still offline
Qatar's 77 million ton per year Ras Laffan facility, the largest LNG plant on earth, has been shut since March 2 after Iranian drones struck the complex. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on all LNG contracts that day.
The country accounts for roughly 20% of global LNG supply. Its absence has already sent European gas prices up nearly 50% and Asian LNG benchmarks up 39% in less than a week.
Al-Kaabi said that even if the war ended today, it would take "weeks to months" to get back to a normal delivery cycle. Restarting a liquefaction train is not like flipping a switch; each unit needs careful depressurization checks and safety reviews before it can ramp back up.
Ripple effects across the Gulf
Qatar is not alone. Iraq has already shut in major oil fields that depend on Hormuz for exports. Saudi Aramco's 550,000 barrel-per-day Ras Tanura refinery remains offline after a drone strike on March 2. Kuwait and the UAE face the same chokepoint problem.
The only Gulf producer with a partial workaround is Saudi Arabia, which can reroute some crude through the East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. But that line handles a fraction of the kingdom's total output.
Brent's 26% weekly surge already marks the biggest weekly gain since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. If al-Kaabi's timeline proves accurate, triple-digit oil is not a fringe forecast anymore.
What comes next
President Trump signaled "imminent action" on Friday to bring prices down, and the US Treasury is expected to announce measures targeting oil futures as soon as next week. But the root of the problem is physical: tankers cannot move through Hormuz.
For now, the market is pricing in disruption, not resolution. Traders will watch the weekend for any shift in US-Iran hostilities. A ceasefire would ease pressure fast. Anything short of one, and al-Kaabi's $150 warning starts looking less like a worst case and more like a base case.