Canadian crude finds new markets
The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion has fundamentally transformed Canada's oil export landscape since beginning operations in May 2024. What was once an almost exclusively US-bound flow of crude is now reaching Asia in significant volumes, with China emerging as the second-largest destination for Canadian oil.
Crude oil movements through the expanded pipeline surged 449.9% in the 12 months following the expansion's opening, according to Statistics Canada. The project increased capacity from 300,000 barrels per day to 890,000 barrels per day at a cost of C$53 billion.
Asia becomes key export destination
The shift in export destinations has been dramatic. Data from the Canada Energy Regulator shows that from May 2024 to April 2025:
| Destination | Export Share |
|---|---|
| United States | 51.9% |
| China | 31.9% |
| Hong Kong | 7.1% |
| Singapore | 6.3% |
| South Korea | 1.6% |
| India | 1.2% |
The Westridge Marine Terminal now loads an average of 23 tanker vessels per month, enabling Canadian crude to reach Asian refineries that previously relied more heavily on Middle Eastern supplies. Total export value through British Columbia reached $13.9 billion during the first year of expanded operations.
Price benefits for Canadian producers
The expanded pipeline capacity has helped narrow the discount on Canadian heavy crude. The Western Canadian Select to WTI price differential averaged US$18.70 per barrel in the months before the expansion opened. Since June 2024, that discount has narrowed to an average of US$12.00 per barrel.
With WTI crude trading at $61.14 per barrel and Brent at $65.46, the reduced discount translates to significantly higher returns for Canadian oil sands producers.
Pipeline running near capacity
The expanded system has maintained strong utilization rates. The Canada Energy Regulator reports average utilization of 82% across the system, with committed shipper capacity running at 99% utilization. Peak throughput reached 793,000 barrels per day in March 2025.
Storage capacity at the Burnaby terminal expanded to 5.5 million barrels, up from 1.7 million barrels previously, supporting the increased export volumes.
Future expansion already under consideration
Despite the recent capacity addition, analysts warn that Western Canada may face pipeline constraints again within two years. Trans Mountain has indicated it is evaluating projects that could add up to 300,000 barrels per day of additional capacity within five years.
S&P Global forecasts that further export capacity will be needed by early 2026 to maintain balanced pipeline economics. RBN Energy estimates that without optimization projects, oil export constraints could emerge as early as mid-2027.
The pipeline's 70th anniversary on January 1, 2026 marked a milestone for Canadian energy infrastructure that continues to evolve with changing global market demands.