Drones went after Russia's Ryazan oil refinery overnight into Thursday, according to Ukrainian media and footage shared online. It came two days after a larger attack left the Yaroslavl refinery northeast of Moscow burning. Both are major fuel makers, and the strikes come just as a plan for Russia to supply American buyers with diesel is falling apart.
US diesel futures rose nearly 2% on Thursday, making back a small part of an almost 8% drop on Wednesday. Brent was up about 2% and WTI about 1.3% in European trading after a steep slide in crude driven by the midterm results and hopes for an Iran deal.
Two plants in three days
Air defenses downed 124 drones over the Yaroslavl region overnight from Monday to Tuesday, according to Governor Mikhail Yevrayev. Refinery infrastructure was damaged and two workers suffered shrapnel wounds. Russian outlet Astra reported five or more big blazes at the site.
The plant is run by Slavneft, which Rosneft and Gazprom control together, and ranks among the five biggest refineries in Russia. It can run about 15 million metric tons of oil a year, or close to 300,000 barrels a day.
Ryazan, about 180 miles southeast of the Russian capital, was next. Governor Pavel Malkov reported fires at industrial sites in the city and one injured person. Malkov did not say whether the refinery itself was hit. Ukrainian outlets say it was, but the Kyiv Independent said it could not confirm any damage. The Rosneft plant handles around 17 million tons a year. An earlier strike on October 15 knocked out a primary crude unit there, Reuters reported.
A short pause
Ukraine stopped hitting refineries for a few days in mid-October after President Donald Trump publicly asked it to. After the October 15 Ryazan strike, reported attacks went quiet for about two weeks.
They picked up again on October 30. Since then, Kyiv Post has listed hits on Rosneft's Novokuybyshevsk refinery, Bashneft's Novoil plant in Ufa, Lukoil's NORSI refinery and a Transneft pipeline station in Samara.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has set terms for a halt. "If you need us not to attack oil refineries, give me Patriots for one month," Zelensky said on Fox News. Kyiv also wants Russia to stop striking Ukraine's energy facilities.
Diesel cargoes change course
Trump said on October 9 that Russia would send 300,000 tons of diesel right away, then 500,000 tons in November, with 1 million tons to come later.
Getting it ashore is proving hard. Only one of the three tankers that set out with Russian diesel for the US is still on course, according to Matt Smith of ship tracker Kpler, who spoke to the Financial Times. The tanker Leruo switched its listed destination to Brazil. The sanctioned Talisman sailed into the Mediterranean and now shows no fixed destination off Algeria.
US buyers have reason to be careful. Mikie Sherrill, the governor of New Jersey, has cautioned ports and fuel terminals in the state that accepting Russian diesel could bring heavy fines, the New York Times reported.
Moscow is also keeping a tight grip at home. On October 31 the government extended its rule barring producers from selling diesel abroad, now through January, saying it wants a stable domestic fuel market, though some exemptions remain. Alexander Novak, a deputy prime minister, said Russia sent about 510,000 tons abroad in October and plans around 2.15 million tons for November. Novak added that refinery attacks may trim those volumes, but only slightly.
What drivers pay
Relief at the pump is slow. The EIA's weekly survey on November 2 showed the average US diesel price about 68% higher than a year ago. That is less than 4% below the record set in late September, and only about 1% lower than the week before.
The EIA's next fuel price update is due on November 10. Traders are also watching the third US-bound tanker, the Agioi Fanendes, which Smith expects to change course too, and any word on repairs at Yaroslavl and Ryazan.