Rig count hits 551
US oil and gas drillers added five rigs in the week ending February 6, bringing the total to 551, according to Baker Hughes. That is the highest count since November and the third weekly increase in a row.
Gas rigs drove the gain, climbing by five to 130. Oil rigs edged up by one to 412. Offshore rigs rose by two to 16.
The Haynesville shale in east Texas and Louisiana led all basins with seven new rigs. The Permian Basin, by contrast, dropped one. Texas as a whole picked up six rigs, while California and New Mexico each shed one.
A drilling uptick, but still well below last year
Despite three weeks of gains, the US rig count remains 35 units lower than the same week in February 2025. North America as a whole is down 56 rigs year over year, with Canada accounting for 21 of that decline.
The drop reflects a drilling market that never fully recovered from the 2025 oil price slump. WTI spent much of last year below $65, near the breakeven point for many shale producers. Prices have since rebounded to $66.30 per barrel, and OPEC+ is weighing an April output increase that could push them back down.
EIA sees record gas production ahead
The EIA’s February Short-Term Energy Outlook projects US natural gas production will rise 2% to 120.8 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, then hit a record 122.3 Bcf/d in 2027.
Three basins will do the heavy lifting. The Permian is expected to add 1.4 Bcf/d of associated gas this year as oil drilling keeps putting gas into the system. The Haynesville, close to Gulf Coast LNG terminals, should grow by 1.2 Bcf/d. Appalachia will add a smaller 0.3 Bcf/d, helped by the Mountain Valley Pipeline that came online in 2024.
The EIA forecasts Henry Hub prices will average $4.31 per MMBtu in 2026 and $4.38 in 2027. The spot price sat at $2.96 on Thursday, well below those projections, though winter heating season usually keeps front-month contracts volatile.
What the rig count signals
Three weeks of additions suggest operators are cautiously ramping up after a lean stretch. The Haynesville surge points to growing confidence in LNG export demand, while Permian flatness tells a different story: oil drillers remain wary with crude stuck in the mid-$60s.