American drivers woke up Monday to the sharpest single-day gas price jump in three years. AAA reported the national average for regular unleaded surged 11 cents overnight to $3.11 per gallon, the biggest one-day spike since March 4, 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent fuel markets into a panic.
Some stations moved even faster. Drivers in parts of the Midwest and Gulf Coast saw prices leap nearly 80 cents in 24 hours, according to GasBuddy tracking data. Regular unleaded had been hovering around $2.60 just days earlier.
Crude oil is the culprit
The pump pain traces directly back to crude markets. Brent crude rallied roughly 12% over two sessions, the steepest two-day gain since 2020, after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran sparked fears of a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic through the waterway has dropped 70% as ship owners pull vessels rather than pay soaring war-risk insurance premiums.
WTI crude stood at $74.61 per barrel on Tuesday, with Brent at $82.14.
How much higher can prices go?
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told NewsNation the national average could climb to $3.10 or $3.20 by the end of this week. Over the next two weeks, he expects an additional 10 to 25 cents per gallon, assuming no de-escalation in the Middle East.
Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, offered a wider range. He projected gasoline could peak between $3.25 and $3.50 per gallon and said prices are likely to rise 5 to 10 cents a day for at least a few more days.
Neither analyst expects a repeat of the $5 record set in June 2022. Kloza pointed to ample global crude inventories, particularly in China, as a buffer against a prolonged spike.
Diesel, jet fuel, heating oil also climbing
Gasoline is not the only fuel feeling the squeeze. European benchmark diesel futures jumped as much as 23% to a two-year high, outpacing crude gains. US heating oil traded at $2.96 per gallon, up 14% in a single session. Jet fuel saw double-digit percentage increases as well.
Higher diesel costs will ripple through the supply chain. Trucking companies are expected to impose fuel surcharges, raising the cost of shipping consumer goods. Northeast households that rely on heating oil face steeper bills as the tail end of winter lingers.
A sharp reversal from 2026 forecasts
Just two months ago, GasBuddy projected that 2026 would be the cheapest year at the pump since the pandemic, with the national average forecast at $2.97. That outlook assumed steady crude supply and weak demand growth. The Iran conflict has upended those expectations, at least for now.
De Haan summed up the shift bluntly: spring price increases are normal, he said, but acceleration driven by a military campaign overseas is not.