Vice President JD Vance lands in Islamabad on Saturday to open the most consequential US negotiation in the Middle East since the Iran nuclear deal. Across the table sits Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Iran's Parliament Speaker and former Revolutionary Guard commander. Between them: a 10-point proposal that Tehran says will end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz for good.
Oil is already reacting. WTI climbed back above $97 on Thursday, Brent above $98, as the market absorbed the reality that Hormuz remains blocked and the ceasefire is anything but settled. Here's what Iran wants, point by point, and what each demand means for crude.
The 10 points
1. US non-aggression pact. Washington would commit to never attacking Iran again. Standard postwar language, unlikely to meet serious resistance.
2. Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz. This is the big one for oil. Tehran wants to keep running the strait as it has during the war, including a $2 million toll per ship that would be split with Oman and used for reconstruction. Before the war, about 120 vessels crossed daily. At $2 million each, that's $240 million a day, or roughly $87 billion a year. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the US position is that the strait must reopen "without limitation, including tolls." Trump himself muddied the picture by floating a "joint venture" with Iran to manage the crossing.
3. Right to enrich uranium. Iran wants the US to formally accept its nuclear enrichment program. Notably, the Farsi text of the plan published by state media includes this demand, but Tehran's English-language version sent to the UN leaves it out. Trump later ruled it out entirely: "no uranium enrichment."
4-5. Lifting of all sanctions. Both primary and secondary sanctions would go. If that happens, Iranian crude returns to the open market for the first time in years. Iran was exporting roughly 1.5 million barrels per day before the latest sanctions tightened in 2023. Adding that back to a market already facing a surplus would be bearish for prices.
6-7. End all UN and IAEA resolutions. Tehran wants every Security Council resolution and IAEA Board of Governors measure against its nuclear program voided. This would require buy-in from China, Russia, France, and the UK, making it one of the hardest asks to deliver.
8. War reparations. Iran wants the US to pay for damage caused during the six weeks of fighting. No dollar figure has been named publicly, but the destruction of refineries, power infrastructure, and the South Pars gas complex puts the bill well into the tens of billions.
9. US troop withdrawal from the Middle East. Iran wants all American combat forces out of the region. The Pentagon has roughly 50,000 to 57,000 personnel spread across bases in four Gulf countries. A pullout would reshape the US military footprint in a region it has dominated since 1991.
10. Stop fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon. Iran says the ceasefire must cover Hezbollah. Netanyahu says it doesn't. This point nearly killed the truce within hours when Israel bombed Beirut on Wednesday, prompting Iran to re-close Hormuz.
What the market is watching
The talks start Saturday morning. Joining Vance on the US side are envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iran brings Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi. The US has its own 15-point counterproposal, though its full contents haven't leaked.
Three outcomes matter for oil:
- Hormuz toll accepted: Prices could settle in the $80-90 range as shipping resumes with a permanent cost layer. Tanker rates stay elevated.
- Full sanctions relief: Iranian barrels flood a market already facing a 4 million bpd surplus. Bearish. Could accelerate the return toward Goldman's $58 forecast.
- Talks collapse: Hormuz stays shut, war premium returns, and oil heads back toward $110-plus.
The two-week clock is ticking. If Vance and Qalibaf can't narrow the gap by April 22, the bombs start falling again.