"I don't think the US has a choice"
Crude oil could surge to $90 or even $100 a barrel if the United States launches a military strike on Iran, one of the energy industry's most experienced forecasters warned on Sunday.
Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman emeritus of consultancy FGE NexantECA, told Bloomberg Television that war looks all but inevitable. "I don't think the US has a choice but to go to war," he said, adding that it was very hard for him to see a scenario where Washington simply turns its ships around.
Brent crude closed last week at $71.47 per barrel after jumping nearly 6% on the back of Vice President Vance's warning that military strikes remained on the table. WTI settled at $66.26.
What a strike would mean for supply
The math behind $100 oil comes down to geography. About 20 million barrels of crude pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day. Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the chokepoint, and Fesharaki pointed to that risk alongside potential attacks on Saudi, Emirati, and Kuwaiti production facilities.
Even a partial disruption of Hormuz traffic would remove millions of barrels from the market overnight. No amount of US shale growth or OPEC spare capacity could replace those volumes quickly.
Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official, said the US military is positioned for a "sustained, highly kinetic campaign" and prepared to defend allies in the region.
The clock is ticking
President Trump has given Iran a 10-to-15-day window to abandon its nuclear program. Talks are scheduled for Thursday in Geneva, brokered by Omani mediators, but Fesharaki dismissed the chances of a breakthrough. His view: if Tehran accepts Washington's demands, the regime loses all domestic legitimacy. If it refuses, military action follows.
He suggested escalation could come as early as this weekend.
Why prices haven't spiked yet
Brent at $71 is a far cry from $100. Part of the gap reflects strong US production, which has climbed steadily as drillers add rigs for a third straight week. Record output from the Permian Basin gives the market a degree of comfort that global supply won't evaporate entirely.
Goldman Sachs, which raised its year-end Brent forecast to $60 on Sunday, still sees a 2.3-million-barrel-per-day surplus this year. That cushion buys time, but only if the Strait of Hormuz stays open.
A wide range of outcomes
Fesharaki put the conflict price range at $90 to $100 per barrel, depending on how far disruptions spread. That is a best guess, not a ceiling. If Iran manages to choke Hormuz for even a few days, triple-digit crude would likely be the floor, not the cap.
For now, the market is pricing in tension but not war. Thursday's talks in Geneva will be the next inflection point.