A full year, zero cargoes
One year ago this month, a tanker from Corpus Christi docked in Fujian province carrying the last shipment of American LNG to reach Chinese shores. Not a single US cargo has followed.
Beijing slapped a 15% tariff on US LNG in early February 2025, days after President Trump imposed duties on Chinese imports. The levies later ballooned to 125%, making American gas far too expensive. Even the Supreme Court's February 20 ruling that struck down Trump's IEEPA-based tariffs has done little to thaw the standoff. The White House replaced them within hours with a 10% global surcharge.
China's gas appetite is cooling
February's LNG arrivals are tracking at roughly 3.38 million tons, according to Kpler data. That would mark the weakest month since April 2018. A mild winter across much of eastern China curbed heating demand, and spot LNG prices above $10/MMBtu made pipeline gas from Central Asia and domestic production look far cheaper.
Chinese buyers are pivoting away from the US for long-term supply. PetroChina, CNOOC, ENN Natural Gas, Sinochem and Sinopec have all started shopping in the Middle East and Asia Pacific for future contracts, hedging against the risk that trade tensions drag on.
Where the gas is going instead
The five major Chinese firms still hold long-term deals with US export terminals. Over the past 12 months they chartered about 3.3 million tons from Gulf Coast facilities, according to Reuters calculations based on Kpler data. Nearly all of it sailed to Europe.
The continent absorbed a record 14.20 million tons of LNG in February, with American cargoes accounting for about 57% of the total. South and Southeast Asian buyers are also picking up diverted volumes as Chinese spot demand fades.
Plenty of gas, fewer obvious buyers
Natural gas traded at $2.90/MMBtu at the Henry Hub on Tuesday, well off the $7.72 average seen in January when Winter Storm Fern disrupted production. The flood of rerouted US LNG into Europe has kept Atlantic Basin spot prices in check despite tight storage.
The trade war comes at an awkward time for US producers. New liquefaction capacity is ramping up across the Gulf Coast, and projects like Shell's Dragon field feeding Trinidad LNG will add even more supply later this year. Monthly US exports could top 12 million metric tons during winter months.
Without China in the market, those extra cargoes will chase the same European and Asian buyers already swimming in gas. Broader geopolitical risks from the US-Iran standoff could yet rattle energy flows, but for now the LNG glut is the bigger story.