Saudi Arabia says its crude production is almost back to its February level. In OPEC's monthly report, published Wednesday, Riyadh put its October output at 10.563 million barrels a day, Reuters reported.
That is 26% more than the 8.372 million barrels a day it gave for September, a gain of about 2.2 million barrels a day in a single month. It leaves Saudi output roughly 3% short of February, when the Iran conflict had not yet begun.
Brent and US crude were both up more than 1% on Wednesday. They are recovering part of a slide that took oil to its lowest level since August earlier this week. Brent still trades about a fifth below its late-October peak.
Two sets of numbers
Not everyone counts the same barrels. OPEC's report carries two kinds of data: what each member says it produced, and estimates from outside agencies known as secondary sources. The 10.563 million figure is Saudi Arabia's own.
Independent tallies are lower. A Bloomberg survey published on Nov. 7 put Saudi production at 9.2 million barrels a day in October. That is 970,000 barrels a day more than the survey showed for September, yet about 1.4 million short of the number Riyadh gave OPEC.
Bloomberg builds its survey from ship-tracking data, conversations with officials and numbers from consulting firms such as Rapidan Energy Group, Kpler and Rystad Energy.
Both sources agree on the direction. Bloomberg's tanker tracking showed Saudi exports averaging 7 million barrels a day in October. More vessels are getting past Hormuz, and more crude is being loaded at Red Sea ports instead.
In early November, Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said at a conference in Abu Dhabi that the goal is to "maximize production going forward in the fourth quarter."
The rest of the group
Saudi Arabia was not alone. Across the wider OPEC+ group, October output reached 41.23 million barrels a day, Reuters reported, citing the secondary sources in OPEC's report. That is 2.04 million more than in September.
The Bloomberg survey, which covers OPEC members only, showed these changes for October:
- Iraq: up 140,000 barrels a day to 4.15 million
- Kuwait: up 130,000 barrels a day to 2 million
- Iran: down 120,000 barrels a day to 1.9 million
For Iran, that is the weakest month in Bloomberg's records, which start in 1989. Satellite images have shown no tankers at its main export terminals, including Kharg Island, since late August, while the US blockade of Iranian ports remains in place.
In total, the survey put OPEC production at about 88% of what the same countries pumped in February.
What it means for prices
More Gulf barrels are one reason crude has been sliding. The other is diplomacy, which pushed Brent below $100 last week for the first time since early October.
The supply picture is not settled, though. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is still coming under attack, according to Reuters, and the gap between Saudi Arabia's number and outside estimates makes it hard to judge how much oil is really reaching buyers.
What to watch
The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting is on Nov. 29, with 2027 production targets on the agenda. Members' real production capacity is under review ahead of that meeting, so October's figures will feed into the debate.
In the US, the weekly EIA inventory report comes out on Thursday, a day later than usual because of Veterans Day.