Three Chinese supertankers loaded with millions of barrels of crude made a run for the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday morning. Then they stopped.
Bloomberg reported that two VLCCs, the Cospearl Lake and the He Rong Hai, were racing eastward through the Gulf at full clip before pulling up short of the exit. A third, the Yuan Hua Hu, set off behind them a few hours later and also slowed to a crawl.
All three are broadcasting Chinese flags and ownership details on their automatic identification systems. That's a deliberate signal to Iran, which has been more willing to grant passage to Beijing-linked vessels throughout the crisis. Two of the tankers belong to Cosco Shipping Energy Transport, China's largest tanker operator, and this would be Cosco's first oil tanker transit attempt in the six-week war. The He Rong Hai, owned by the smaller Hainan Herong Shipping Co., has been stuck in the Gulf since before fighting broke out on February 28. It picked up more than two million barrels of Saudi crude from the Juaymah export terminal in early March and has sat at anchor ever since.
Why this matters for prices
Oil prices surged above $100 early Thursday as the market bet the ceasefire was falling apart. Then the Chinese VLCCs showed up on tracking screens, and the rally stalled. WTI slid from above $101 back to around $97. Brent dropped from near $99 to below $96.
The logic is simple: every tanker that approaches the strait is a test of whether oil can physically move again. If the Chinese VLCCs get through, other owners will follow. If they don't, the blockade holds and the war premium stays.
The Larak Island corridor
Iran hasn't thrown the strait wide open. Radio transmissions picked up on Thursday warned approaching vessels that transits still require permission from Tehran. Iranian media reported that the IRGC has designated specific routes around Larak Island in the center of the strait, creating a controlled corridor rather than free passage.
That matches what happened Wednesday, when two tankers cleared the strait with IRGC escort before Iran shut everything down over Israel's Lebanon strikes. The system isn't open or closed. It's something in between: a supervised trickle that Iran can turn on or off at will.
Others are already betting on reopening
The Chinese VLCCs aren't the only sign of movement. Glencore, one of the world's largest commodity traders, chartered both a Suezmax and a VLCC to load Iraqi crude from Basra. Taiwan's state refiner CPC booked a tanker to bring two million barrels from the Gulf back to Asia. Neither company is waiting for Saturday's Islamabad talks to place their bets.
That confidence could prove premature. Iran's parliament speaker Qalibaf said three elements of the ceasefire have already been breached, and IRGC commanders continue to warn of retaliation over Lebanon. But with more than 400 laden tankers trapped in the Gulf and buyers across Asia desperate for barrels, the pressure to test the exit is only growing.
WTI settled near $97, Brent around $96. Both are well off the morning highs but still up from Wednesday's crash lows. The Chinese VLCCs will tell the market whether those levels hold.